CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-27T06:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32245/-1
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME visible towards the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and towards the NE in STEREO A COR2. The source is an M3.1 flare from AR 3762 with dimming/EUV wave towards the N/NW starting at 2024-07-27T05:42Z best seen in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 (SDO/AIA has an eclipse shortly after the event starts). The eruption is also visible south of disk center as seen in available EUV imagery. Arrival signature: a likely combined shock of this CME and up to 3 preceding CMEs characterized by a sharp increase in B_total from ~5nT to ~13 and eventually to 15nT, fast fluctuation of magnetic field components, a jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 480 km/s and an increase in density from 6 to above 10 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T23:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-30T00:06Z (-4.96h, +6.52h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/07/27 06:10Z
Plane of Sky 1: 14:00Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 18:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction
POS Difference: 4:20
POS Midpoint: 16:10Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:00

Numeric View/Impact Type: 3
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.59
Travel Time: ~6.59 * 10:00 = 65:56

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-07-30T00:06Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/07/27 17:12Z

Lead Time: 50.95 hour(s)
Difference: -0.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-07-27T20:23Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy